Sunday, January 13, 2019, 1840ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #275
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2596 up +64 (up +2.5%) for the week ending on Friday, January 11, 2019, which closed about its +1 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2661 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3021
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2521 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2725
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2382 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2428
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +309 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 70 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Looking at McClellan Osc + Breadth Thrust, it is very clear that we are OVERBOUGHT territory. Charts are saying we are poised for a negative catalyst to start a pull back. How far, it is hard to tell at this moment but we would be on the lookout.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,601 or 9.2% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1593 or 9.2% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) rose a tad this past week. No signal here.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) rose a tad too but RISK is still OFF for now.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2635 or 1.5% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2740 or 5.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
All EIGHT out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders still remain in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, January 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2510
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = N/A (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = N/A (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +9.94 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
Spot VIX currently stands at 18.2, at about its -1.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
VIX continued to sink (moderately) this past week.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs continue to be in NEUTRAL zones.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator rallied to 30.7% area. This move is encouraging. We need to see it cross 35% (its 50day MA).
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 119, still about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts, again? YES but our beloved @Capt_Tiko abstained this weekend on this vote.....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, (now long FEB19, & short MAY19 VIX Futures) closed at -0.11 which says SPX is NEUTRAL.
HA_SP2 = 72.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
Our coveted SP2 prop indicator is nearing OVERBOUGHT zone.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
This week the YTMs went nowhere fast. Maury is still upset. Mrs Maury paid for (via HIS credit card) five therapy sessions!!