Investment Advice via real time put call ratio real time investment advice
Contact Us Home Products News About Members
Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, January 29, 2019, 2239ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

With AAPL 2018 Q4 earnings report behind us and first CY 2019 FOMC Meeting slated for tomorrow (Fed Chair Powell asking GOT DATA?), we are going LONG SPX here for a few days……

Fari Hamzei

Monday, January 28, 2019, 0945ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #277

Monday, January 28, 2019, 0940ET
Market Bias for Issue #277

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of JAN 10 at 2597
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of JAN 4 at 2531

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2650
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2635
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2610
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2555

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday FEB 15 262 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 15 255 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, January 27, 2019, 1530ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #277

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2665 down -5 (down zero%) for the week ending on Friday, January 25, 2019, which closed about its +1.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2705 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2980
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2578 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2703
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2452 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2426

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +221 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 58.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

With USGov self-inflicted shutdown over (albeit for next 3 weeks), and upcoming FOMC Meeting this week, the question now becomes how does a flexible, data-dependent FED, makes a call re any potential interest rate change while flying blind (most econ data has been delayed for 5 weeks now)? a key number on our radar will be JAN NFP, due this Friday (CE is +158K).

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,578 or 6.2 ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1590 or 6.8% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) went nowhere fast and just vacillated around its 50Day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) exhibited same behavior as DJ TRAN. RISK is creeping back in.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2613 or 1.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2741 or 2.8% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Four out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders (all 50DTs) are now in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, January 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2510
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 14 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 0(over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +8.83 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 17.4, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX saw a sudden ramp up but then died fast at its -1 sigma. VXN (VIX for NASDAQ) has a sharper move.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs continue to be in NEUTRAL zones. No signal here.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 41.4% area. Next target is 45% to 50% area.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 126.1, now about its +0.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts, again? YES (Capt Tiko says, for now)....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (now long FEB19, & short MAY19 VIX Futures) again closed at -0.3 which says SPX is in NEUTRAL.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 72.5 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator is now back in the uber OVERBOUGHT zone and possibly setting up a bearish divergence here as recent local maxima in SPX is retested.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This week the YTMs went nowhere fast. On the QT, we have heard rumors that Maury is setting up office in Europe. Given current expectation for EuroBund rates, for the life of us, we can't figure out why is he doing that. Go Figure !!!

Fari Hamzei

Customer Care:

Chat with Fari on Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
HA YouTube Channel  :::  HA Blog  :::  Testimonials  :::  Tutorials & FAQs  :::  Privacy Policy
(c) 1998-2024, Hamzei Analytics, LLC.   All Rights Reserved.