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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, February 7, 2019, 2144ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

In light of large negative price action today, right below SPX 200 day MA, we are getting SHORT SPX tonight……

This signal should be good for about a week +/- ……

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, February 6, 2019, 0202ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

After taking in 99+ SPX handles in just 5 trading day (which equals to almost a thousand points in the Dow), and after a deep dive into our short-term momentum & breadth indicators, it is time for this PDI to step back and smell the roses for a few days…..

GOING FLAT SPX at 2737.70

Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 4, 2019, 1040ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #278

Monday, February 4, 2018, 1035ET
Market Bias for Issue #278

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of JAN 29 at 2640
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of JAN 10 at 2596

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2745
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2730
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2704
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2680

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday FEB 22 270 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 22 275 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, February 3, 2019, 1545ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #278

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2706 up +41 (up +1.5%) for the week ending on Friday, February 1, 2019, which closed above its +1.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2718 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2954
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2625 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2693
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2532 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2432

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +208 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 60.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

With disappointing AMZN guidance & a great JAN NFP, we rallied a tad on Friday, but overall it was a good week for the longs.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,568 or 4.2 ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1589 or 5.5% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a nice rally.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also had a nice rally. RISK is creeping back in.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2609 or 3.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2741 or 1.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Four out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders (all 50DTs) are now in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, January 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2510
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 29 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 0(over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +6.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 16.1, at about its -2 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX sold off last week. VXN (VIX for NASDAQ) was more mixed.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs continue to be in NEUTRAL zones. No signal here.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 47.8% area. Next target is to cross 50% LIS.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 126, now about its +0.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts, again? YES (Capt Tiko says so again)....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (now long FEB19, & short MAY19 VIX Futures) again closed at -0.9 which says SPX is in NEUTRAL.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 78.5 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator dopped then rallied back into the uber OVERBOUGHT zone. Look for potential bearish divergences.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This week the YTMs dropped and then rallied on Friday, so effectively, they went nowhere fast.

Fari Hamzei

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