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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, February 19, 2019, 1005ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #280

Tuesday, February 19, 2019, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #280

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of FEB 14 at 2746
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of FEB 11 at 2709

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2795
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2774
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2725
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2705

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday MAR 8 276 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAR 8 270 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, February 19, 2019, 0115ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #280

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2275 up +67 (up +2.47%) for the week ending on Friday, February 15, 2019, which closed above its +2 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2784 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2893
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2698 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2675
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2613 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2457

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +139 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 58.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This past week, we saw more bearish divergences and yet we rallied further. How long this will go on? Who knows -- always trade what you see, not what you think.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,559 or 0.1% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1587 or 1.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) rallied hard and closed above its 200-day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a slower ascent and got very close to its 200-day MA but no cigar, yet. RISK is back ON.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2615 or 6.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2744 or 1.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SEVEN out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders are now in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, January 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2510
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 44 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 14.9, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX sold off a tad last week, and, VXN (VIX for NASDAQ) remained mixed.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is heading to a SELL zone while 5-day TRIN for NASDAQ is in the NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied hard to 61% and looking at its 20- and 50-day MAs, it is a pretty STRONG showing. Expect higher percentage readings? YES..... looking for 67% to 73% next.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 129.6, now about its +1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts, again? YES according to HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (now long MAR19, & short JUN19 VIX Futures) again closed at -1.5 which says SPX is in NEUTRAL.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 80.75 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator continues to revisit the OVRBOUGHT zone for the THIRD time since mid-January. Be careful in your bet size.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs again went sideways last week. Maury is not happy, again.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 18, 2018, 2045ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #64

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

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