Monday, March 18, 2019, 0700ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #284
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2822 up +79 (up +2.9%) for the week ending on Friday, March 15, 2019, which closed below its +2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2824 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2895
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2787 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2679
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2750 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2464
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -34 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.3 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
SPX and NDX had one of their biggest weeks [to the upside} in a long time. We sat this one out.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,539 or 2.2% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1583 or 1.9% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a one great day, Monday and then went sideways.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) did exactly the same -- up big on Monday and then sideways. Is RISK still ON?
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2705 or 4.3% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2752 or 2.5% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
SIX out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders are now in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday, March 14, 2019 CLOSE at 2808
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 60 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.65 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
Spot VIX currently stands at 13.03, at about its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
VIX sank to from +4 sigma to -1.5 sigma by Friday. This was a very fast rise for SPX and a big drop (percentage wise) for VIX.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Our 5-day TRINs for both NYSE + NASDAQ are in their respective SELL zones.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator rallied to almost 59% during the past week.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 128.8, now about its +0.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? YES, this is according to our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, (now long APR19, & short JUL19 VIX Futures) crossed the zero line on Friday and closed at -1.4 which is very NEUTRAL.
HA_SP2 = 75.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
Our coveted SP2 prop indicator is about to enter its OVERBOUGHT zone.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
Both the front + back end of the Yield Curve went nowhere fast. Maury still upset, was last seen roughing it out, at the BH Waldorf Astoria Hotel pool. LOL.