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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, April 1, 2019, 1000ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #286

Monday, April 1, 2018, 0955ET
Market Bias for Issue #286

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of MAR 29 at 2834
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of MAR 6 at 2771


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2895
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2880
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2853
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2810


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday APR 19 285 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday APR 19 290 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, April 1, 2019, 0029ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Since the Market is ALWAYS Right, and since we continue to see a decent bid to this market as we embark on a new quarter, we are going LONG SPX now…………

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 31, 2019, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #286


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2834 up +31 (+1.2%) for the week ending on Friday, March 29, 2019, which closed at its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2859 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2913
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2804 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2686
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2749 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2459

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +14 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This past week, both SPX and NDX went nowhere fast.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,505 or 0.9% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1577 or 2.4% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a great week and by Friday almost rose to get to its 200-day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a good week but not as great as DJ Tran. Is RISK still ON?



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2756 or 2.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2755 or 2.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SIX out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders are now in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Tuesday, March 26, 2019 CLOSE at 2818
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 39 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.63 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 13.7, at about its +2 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

This past week both VIX & VXN sold off quite steadily from +3 sigma to almost -1 sigma.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both 5-day TRIN (for NYSE) and 5-day TRINQ (for NASDAQ) are in NEUTRAL zone now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rose very slowly 58%. Next level to watch for is 65%-67%.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 121, now about its -0.75 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? YES, this is according to our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (now long APR19, & short JUL19 VIX Futures) closed the week at -1.64 which is NEUTRAL here.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 63 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator went from 41 to 63 this past week. We are heading higher for now.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Yield Curve eased off tremendously this past week. This could be a big signal by the US Bonds Market about the pending global markets slow down. Maury is speechless and about to write a memo to Grumpino to vent out. LOL !!

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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