Sunday, March 31, 2019, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #286
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2834 up +31 (+1.2%) for the week ending on Friday, March 29, 2019, which closed at its +1 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2859 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2913
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2804 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2686
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2749 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2459
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +14 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
This past week, both SPX and NDX went nowhere fast.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,505 or 0.9% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1577 or 2.4% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a great week and by Friday almost rose to get to its 200-day MA.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a good week but not as great as DJ Tran. Is RISK still ON?
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2756 or 2.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2755 or 2.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
SIX out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders are now in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Tuesday, March 26, 2019 CLOSE at 2818
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 39 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.63 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
Spot VIX currently stands at 13.7, at about its +2 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
This past week both VIX & VXN sold off quite steadily from +3 sigma to almost -1 sigma.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both 5-day TRIN (for NYSE) and 5-day TRINQ (for NASDAQ) are in NEUTRAL zone now.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator rose very slowly 58%. Next level to watch for is 65%-67%.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 121, now about its -0.75 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? YES, this is according to our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, (now long APR19, & short JUL19 VIX Futures) closed the week at -1.64 which is NEUTRAL here.
HA_SP2 = 63 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
Our coveted SP2 prop indicator went from 41 to 63 this past week. We are heading higher for now.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The Yield Curve eased off tremendously this past week. This could be a big signal by the US Bonds Market about the pending global markets slow down. Maury is speechless and about to write a memo to Grumpino to vent out. LOL !!