Sunday, April 21, 2019, 2315ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #288
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2834 up +31 (+1.2%) for the six days ending on Friday, April 19, 2019, which closed at its +1 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2943 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2987
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2866 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2715
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2783 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2443
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -42 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
During the past 2 weeks, both SPX and NDX went nowhere fast, while staying in the +1 to +2 sigma channel.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,509 or 4.6% BELOW DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1570 or 0.3% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) creeped up ever slowly for the last couple of weeks.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) went nowhere during the last 2 weeks and this is a current concern for us.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2815 or 3.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2766 or 5% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
SEVEN of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, April 1, 2019 CLOSE at 2768
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 56 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
Spot VIX currently stands at 12.1, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
No signal here..... read more Rumi? @Capt_Tiko says YES!
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
NYSE 5-day TRIN is in NEUTRAL zone while NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ remains in a SELL zone now.
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator rose very gradually to 73%. Next level to watch for is around 75-77%%.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 123, now about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? YES, this is according to our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, (now long APR19, & short JUL19 VIX Futures) closed the week at -3.97 which is slightly OVERBOUGHT here.
HA_SP2 = 67.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
Our coveted SP2 prop indicator has been going sideways in the last two weeks just below the OVERBOUGHT zone.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The Yield Curve went nowhere fast but Maury's pain is no less.