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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, May 23, 2019, 1930ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #66

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, May 20, 2019, 0950ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #291

Monday, May 20, 2019, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #291

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of MAY 17 at 2859
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of MAY 13 at 2811

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2860
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2835
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2810
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2780

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday JUN 7 283 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JUN 7 276 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, May 20, 2019, 0920ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #291

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2860 down 21 (down -0.73%) for the week ending on Friday, May 17, 2019, which closed near its -1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2954 (reached on Wednesday, May 1, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7852 (reached on Wednesday, May 1, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2978 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3013
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2900 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2789
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2821 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2565

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -80 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 44.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Monday was a huge day and we got extra lucky. I made a big mistake of not getting long Monday night as SP2 was at 15.5. Won't happen again, promise. In the next three days we witnessed a big run-up into Friday OX.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,528 or 0.2% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1562 or 1.5% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) sold off on Monday and then tried to recover somewhat.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off hard on Monday and then went sideways.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2868 or 0.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2776 or 3% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Monday, May 6, 2019 CLOSE at 2932
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 50 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 22 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 17.3 Friday night, at about its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

We now believe that @Capt_Tiko may have had an email from the Masters of Universe last week.... maybe AG Barr should investigate that too..... ROFLMTO

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is approaching a NEUTRAL signal & NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ is moving towards a SELL signal.

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator dropped sharply to 60%. The Divergences we wrote about during the last few weeks have surely played out.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 118.7, now about its -1 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Still YES, this is according to our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (now long JUN19, & short SEP19 VIX Futures) hit -0.5 on Friday Close which translates to: we are still near the bottom.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 45.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator dropped to 15 on Monday (we should have gone Long).

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

During last week our Yield Curve continued to ease off more.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, May 18, 2019, 1249ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Next week should be a tough week for a number market impacting issues, both foreign and domestic, as currently managed in a circus-like atmosphere of Washington.

Our goal was to wait for a new run-up high on Friday OX and then short the market, as the SPX chartpattern in May 2019 looks a lot like early October 2018.
Well, that did not exactly materialize due to couple of news items that came out in mid to late yesterday, and, subsequently, SPX closed lower from Thursday’s Close.

Nonetheless, we shall still to our plan and go SHORT SPX now……

Fari Hamzei

Customer Care:

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