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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, July 1, 2019, 1000ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #297

Monday, July 1, 2018, 0955ET
Market Bias for Issue #297

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of JUN 28 at 2942
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of JUN 25 at 2917


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3020
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2990
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2971
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2945


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday JUL 19 296 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JUL 19 301 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, July 1, 2019, 0810ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #297


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2941 down -8 (down -0.3%) for the week ending on Friday, June 28, 2019, which closed near its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2964 (reached on Friday, June 21, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7852 (reached on Wednesday, May 1, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2994 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2985
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2890 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2857
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2787 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2729

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +92 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This past week, we went nowhere fast... yes, Summer is here......



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,361 or 1% BELOW DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1532 or 2.2% BELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had two great days on Thursday and Friday and may have averted another death cross (50-day MA dipping below 200-day MA).

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) ditto here, but, RISK, is still OFF.....



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2880 or 2.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2777 or 5.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 7, 2019 CLOSE at 2873
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 36 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 15.08 Friday night, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Vols of the Vols were flat last week. Summer days are here again.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN in NEUTRAL mode while NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ is still hanging around SELL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied hard to 73% by Friday. The next levels to watch for are 75% and then 80%.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 118.1, now about its +2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? YES, INDEED....says our beloved HRH Capt Tiko, KCPE.


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JUL19, & short OCT19 VIX Futures) hit -1.52 on Friday Close. No signal here.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 67.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Are we still in a topping formation? we think so + make sure you have plenty of iced tea on hand, per HRH @Capt_Tiko.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Last week the whole YTM Curve took another massive plunge. The yield curve is getting a tad more inverted...... Maury & Grumpino (plus Trumpkins) are still, in eternal words of Pink Floyd: Comfortably Numb.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, June 30, 2019, 1825ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

As WSJ reports: “while obstacles remain, US-China Trade Talks are back on………”

We are getting LONG SPX here……..

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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