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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 1220ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #300

Wednesday, July 31, 2019, 1215ET
Market Bias for Issue #300

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of JUL 30 at 3013
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of JUL 23 at 3005

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3055
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3040
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 3016
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2999

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 16 301 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 16 306 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 2300ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #300

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3013 down -1 (down -0%) for the two weeks and two days ending on Tuesday, July 30, 2019, which closed near its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27398 (reached on Tuesday, July 16, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3028 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8027 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3030 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3056
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2998 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2911
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2967 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2765

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +15 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 52.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Busy Earnings Season brought market participants plenty of joy as US Markets rallied to new ATHs. Now we have a FOMC Meeting tomorrow and July NFP on Friday.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,280 or 4.9% BELOW DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1520 or 4.3% BELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has made great strides to deliver us a channel breakout. We are close but not there yet.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) did a tad better and we are about to witness a channel breakout. RISK ON is still not there yet.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2921 or 3.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2787 or 8.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, July 26, 2019 CLOSE at 3026
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 36 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.5 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 13.94 Friday night, at about its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Vols have been drifting down but it popped today over its center line (zero sigma). Is this a beginning of another shockwave? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko does not think so.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE 5-day TRIN & NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ are in NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator stayed at about 74%, not confirming most recent highs (which is normally the case with this indicator).

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose pretty sharply to 121.9, now about its zero sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, expects some rock 'n roll in late summer.

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long AUG19, & short NOV19 VIX Futures) hit -1.75 on Tuesday Close. That is a NEUTRAL signal.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 54.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

We should see this indicator retest 75 area soon, per HRH @Capt_Tiko, KCPE.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Last two weeks we saw sideways action throughout the Yield Curve ahead of July FOMC Meeting which ends tomorrow at 1400ET.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, July 30, 2019, 1811ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

After SPX giving back about 1% from Friday high to today’s low & then with AAPL solid beat after the Close today, it is time to get LONG SPX going into July FOMC (due tomorrow at 1400ET).


Fari Hamzei

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