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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 0945ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #301

Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 0940ET
Market Bias for Issue #301

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of JUL 30 at 3013
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of JUL 23 at 3005


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2930
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2910
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2872
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2850


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 23 287 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 23 292 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 5, 2019, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #301


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2845 down -168 (down -5.6%) for the six days ending on Monday, August 5, 2019, which closed near its -4 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27398 (reached on Tuesday, July 16, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3028 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8027 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3067 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3042
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2987 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2909
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2908 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2776

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -223 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 45.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Well, Grumpino had to mess it up, otherwise..... not sure where he learned Econ 101 but he has put us on a wild ride.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,277 or 2.3% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1519 or 2.1% BELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a very rough four sessions since FOMC. Of interest to us, is where we see a death cross in DJ TRAN.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) ditto here. RISK is OFF.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2928 or 2.8% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2790 or 1.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, August 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2932
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 36 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 31 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its -3 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -12 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 24.6 on Monday night, at about its +4 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

This should be a local minima. Now we need to see a confirmation that this shockwave recedes.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is in a BUY zone while NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ is in NEUTRAL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator got double-flushed to about 57%......very nice indeed.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose pretty sharply to 113.3, now about its -2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? heck no.... as HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, warns us some 2-3 weeks, here comes some rock 'n roll.... ENJOY the elevated Vols


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long AUG19, & short NOV19 VIX Futures) hit +2.73 on Monday Close. That is a BUY signal.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 8.5 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Close your eyes, cover your nose and BUY BUY BUY. sailor, that's an order from our XO, HRH @Capt_Tiko, KCPE.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Well, here we go.....this week, our YTMs got a courtesy-flush (in Seinfeld lingo) and our beloved Maury finally got kicked out of his own house (no mortgage) in BH Flats. So now, he has to rough it at the pool side of BH Waldorf-Astoria.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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