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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, September 26, 2019, 0014ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

As discussed in great detail last night in our PMT Webinar #68, we waited today for a bounce back (off of 50-day MA), and now, we are ready to get SHORT SPX for about 7 trading days (Jewish High Holidays start this Sunday and end on Tuesday Oct 8th).

News from Washington is not good and chartpatterns show vulnerabilities as we enter into a period of negative seasonality, albeit for a short duration…..

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, September 24, 2019, 2215ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #68

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, September 23, 2019, 0950ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #307

Monday, September 23, 2019, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #307

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of SEPT 17 at 3005
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of SEPT 13 at 3007

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3030
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3020
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2991
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2970

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday OCT 11 299 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday OCT 11 304 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, September 23, 2019, 0915ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #307

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2992 up +14 (up +0.47%) for the 3 trading days ending on Friday, September 20, 2019, which closed at its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27398 (reached on Tuesday, July 16, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3028 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8027 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3061 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3063
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2956 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2923
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2851 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2784

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +9.4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

What a week it was with China, FOMC and Saudi Oil Fields Attack, not to mention our biggest vol generator: Grumpino's haphazard and lawless actions. This week we have UN Gen Assembly and the start of Jewish High Holidays (SELL Rosh Hashanah & BUY Yom Kippur).

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,245 or 2% BELOW DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1518 or 2.7% BELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another tough week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) showing RISK ON has backed off.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2951 or 1.4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2825 or 5.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday, September 3, 2019 CLOSE at 2906
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 25 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.14 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 15.3 on Tuesday night, a tad below its -0.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX up ticked a bit but nothing to write home about.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is in clearly a BUY signal here while NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ is still in the NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator could not get over 77%, and by Friday dropped to 72% continuing to build a triple-top (or as some prefer to call it a head-and-shoulder pattern) that we talked abut last week.

SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) rose pretty sharply to 117.5, now just a tad above its zero sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, says YES (for now)...

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long SEP19, & short DEEZ19 VIX Futures) hit -1.6 on Friday Close. That is a NEUTRAL signal. But remember, with continued Grumpino's erratic behavior, you never know.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 48 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

That as a huge drop in SP2 on Friday -- Thank you Grumpino !!! you are best that ever happened to day traders.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Yield Curve (both front and back end) eased off last week. We hear Maury is not happy any more. He may have to change his analyst LOL.

Fari Hamzei

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