Proactive Market Timing Archive

Proactive Market Timing

Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko
Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, October 16, 2019, 0012ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Tonight, a number of our market timing indicators (but not all) point to some degree of overbought conditions. SPX Tail Risk has been rising too.

NFLX EPS is on deck tomorrow after the Cash Close and the White House is facing a number of potentially tough Ukraine-related testimonies by State Dept. Diplomatic Staff on the Hill during the latter part of this week.

And last, but not least, since we have taken out about 195 SPX handles (which equates to about 2,000 Dow points) in the last 20 calendar days, we think that’s plenty for now and we ought to step aside for a bit & let the dust settles.

Cheers……..

Fari Hamzei

Monday, October 14, 2019, 1100ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #310

Monday, October 14, 2019, 1055ET
Market Bias for Issue #310

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of OCT 8 at 2893
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of SEPT 25 at 2984

Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3025
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3010
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2968
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2940

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option

BUY SPY Friday NOV 8 296 Calls

SELL SHORT SPY Friday NOV 8 301 Calls

You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, October 8, 2019, 2341ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

As promised, we SOLD SHORT SPX on Sept 25th, ahead of Rosh Hashanah, and now, we are getting LONG SPX on Yom Kippur for a cool 93 handles gain.

#onlyinAmerica

Cheers….

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 13, 2019, 2130ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #310

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2952 down -10 (down -0.34%) for the week ending on Friday, October 4, 2019, which closed at its -0.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27398 (reached on Tuesday, July 16, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3028 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8027 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3034 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3067
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2961 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2939
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2888 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2812

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +29.5 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 50.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

We will stay LONG for day or two as we are crossing NEUTRAL zone into overbought.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,273 or at the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1526 or 1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a huge come back on Thursday & Friday after a tough two weeks.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also had a very rough week but came back a tad on Friday. RISK IS STILL OFF.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2935 or 1.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2853 or 4.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only FIVE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, October 11, 2019 CLOSE at 2970
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 27 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 20 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.28 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 15.6 Friday night, a tad below its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, this shockwave completed its move.....

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator closed at 64.5% which went nowhere fast as whole week of trading. AGAIN, WE MUST THANK Grumpino for helping out ALL index day-traders.

SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) rose pretty sharply to 122.4, now just a tad above its +2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, now thinks move rock 'n roll is ahead. "What is the catalyst?" no one knows but stay alert

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long SEP19, & short DEEZ19 VIX Futures) hit -3.11 Friday Close . We are in overbought zone here.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 63.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is heading up from the NEUTRAL zone.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Yield Curve (both front and back end) eased off more in the first part of last week and then rallied on Thursday & Friday as news of possible trade deal on China was reported. As usual, Grumpino was skating on thin ice. Oops !!

Fari Hamzei

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