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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, October 25, 2019, 1321ET
Stopped Out Email, Issue #311


PMT Money Management STOP of SPX at 3025 was hit as Europe was near its close ~1123 ET

At that time, the following prices were observed:

SPX traded at 3025
SPY traded at 301.96

The midpoint price for our Long Put leg was approximately at 2.64
The midpoint price for our Short Put leg was approximately at 1.48

The midpoint price for our Put Spread was approximately at 1.16

Our Market Bias with Timer Digest still remains SHORT SPX

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, October 23, 2019, 1033ET
Launch Command Email, Issue #311


Dear PMT & PMT Pro Members:

EXECUTE….. EXECUTE…..EXECUTE…………

SPX is trading at 2995 now
SPY is trading at 299.50 now

The midpoint price for our Long Put leg is trading approximately at 3.78 now
The midpoint price for our Short Put leg is trading approximately at 2.22 now

Therefore, the midpoint price for our Put Spread is trading approximately at 1.56 now

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, Octber 23, 2019, 0955ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #311

Wednesday, October 23, 2019, 0950ET
Targets & Trade Setup for Issue #311

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of OCT 22 from 2995
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of OCT 15 from 2995


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3025
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2997
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2950
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2925


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday NOV 22 299 Puts 4.16
SELL SHORT SPY Friday NOV 22 293 Puts 2.30
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, October 22, 2019, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #311


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2996 up +26 (up +0.87%) for the seven trading days ending on Tuesday, October 22, 2019, which closed at its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27398 (reached on Tuesday, July 16, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3028 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8027 (reached on Friday, July 26, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3029 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3048
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2959 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2957
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2890 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2866

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +95.4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 61.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

It's time to get short, because: short-term chart patterns, Earnings Season volatility & the political crisis Washington is in currently.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,339 or 3.9% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1533 or 1.2% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a run-up in the last 7 days.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also had a very strong up in the last 9 days. RISK ON IS so-so.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2948 or 1.6% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2870 or 4.4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All EIGHT of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, October 11, 2019 CLOSE at 2970
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 48 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.25 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX stood at 14.5 Friday night, a tad below its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The past shockwave is all but gone for now.....



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator closed today at 70.1% which in the upper-end of overbought region. We must keep an eye on this indicator this week.



SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) rose pretty sharply to 125.9, now just a tad above its +1 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, says NO. "What is the catalyst?" no one knows but stay alert


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long NOV19, & short FEB20 VIX Futures) hit -2.11 today at the Close. We are near overbought zone here.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 60.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator has dropped from almost OVERBOUGHT zone down to mildly NEUTRAL zone.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Yield Curve (both front and back end) have been fairly flat here for last 7 trading days.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, October 22, 2019, 2025ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We feel our equity markets are again poised for a drop……. This is both premised on short-term chart patterns, Earnings Season volatility & the political crisis Washington is in currently. Therefore, we are now SHORT SPX as of the Close of today = 2995.99

(our PMT Pro Members got the notice of our intention to go SHORT SPX by email from Nancy Scott (my AirBoss) at 1538 ET today…)

Cheers…….

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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