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 Proactive Market Timing
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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart
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Friday, December 6, 2019, 1239ET
SPECIAL ALERT EMAIL >>> **UPDATED** Trade for PMT Issue #315
We are fast approaching our Primary Profit Target for PMT Issue 315 (trade #2 for this Issue)
Our Primary Profit Target is SPX 3155
SPX Weekly Resistance One Level is 3158
SPX High of the Day = 3150
SPX last = 3149.2x
Use your discretion to exit today
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SPX is trading at 3149.50
SPY is trading at 315.20 now
The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 5.98
The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 2.45
Therefore, the midpoint price for our Call Spread is trading approximately at 3.53
Fari Hamzei
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019, 1140ET
LAUNCH COMMAND EMAIL >>> **UPDATED** Trade for PMT Issue #315
SPX is trading at 3116.95 now
SPY is trading at 311.85 now
The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 4.10 now
The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 1.33 now
Therefore, the midpoint price for our Call Spread is trading approximately at 2.77 now
@Capt_Tiko: EXECUTE….. EXECUTE…
Fari Hamzei
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019, 1020ET
**UPDATED** WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #315
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019, 1020ET
**UPDATED** Market Bias for Issue #315
Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of NOV 22 at 3110
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of OCT 22 at 2995
Here are the trade parameters for this week:
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3170
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3155
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 3115
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3090
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| Action |
Asset |
Expiration |
Strike |
Option |
Mid-Point |
| BUY |
SPY |
Friday DEC 27 |
311 |
Calls |
4.08 |
| SELL SHORT |
SPY |
Friday DEC 27 |
316 |
Calls |
1.35 |
| You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.
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Note A:
Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target.
Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.
Note B:
When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.
Fari Hamzei
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Tuesday, December 3, 2019, 0928ET
Stopped Out Email for Issue #315
Our Money Management Stop for PMT Issue 315 will be hit at the Cash Open
ES Futures are down another 30-handles as of now
SPX will be open below 3100 which was our STOP
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SPX opened at 3087.41
SPY opened at 308.65
Our Long Call leg opened at 3.01
Our Short Call leg opened at 0.69
Therefore, the opening price for our Call Spread approximately at 2.32
Fari Hamzei
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Monday, December 2, 2019, 1325ET
Launch Command Email, Issue #315
SPX is trading at 3118.60 now
SPY is trading at 312.02 now
The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 4.17 now
The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 1.16 now
Therefore, the midpoint price for our Call Spread is trading approximately at 3.01 now
@Capt_Tiko: EXECUTE….. EXECUTE…
Fari Hamzei
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Monday, December 2, 2019, 1250ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #315
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Monday, December 2, 2019, 1245ET
Market Bias for Issue #315
Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of NOV 22 at 3110
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of OCT 22 at 2995
Here are the trade parameters for this week:
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3170
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3155
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 3116
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3100
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| Action |
Asset |
Expiration |
Strike |
Option |
Mid-Point |
| BUY |
SPY |
Friday DEC 27 |
311 |
Calls |
4.14 |
| SELL SHORT |
SPY |
Friday DEC 27 |
317 |
Calls |
1.11 |
| You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.
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Note A:
Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target.
Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.
Note B:
When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.
Fari Hamzei
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Monday, December 2, 2019, 0915ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #315
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3120 up +21 (up +0.67%) for the four trading days ending on Friday, November 29, 2019, which closed very near its +2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 28175 (reached on Wednesday, November 27, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3154 (reached on Thursday, November 28, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8446 (reached on Thursday, November 28, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3153 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3150
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3105 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2996
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3057 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2842
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -25 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Bearish Divergences continue to show up specially in SPX + NDX vs TRAN + RUT no new highs. We are cautiously LONG SPX.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,459 or 3.8% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1547 or 5% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 3028 or 3.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2927 or 7.3% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a nice week but pulled back on Friday.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a great week but also pulled back on Friday. RISK ON remains so-so.
All EIGHT of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
HA_SP1_Momo Chart
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, October 11, 2019 CLOSE at 2970
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 43 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.72 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long DEC19, & short MAR20 VIX Futures) hit -3.88 today at the Close. We are clearly at overbought zone here.
HA_SP2 Chart
HA_SP2 = 66 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This indicator shows that we were in overbought zone, and, now we are trading a tad above NEUTRAL zone.
Fari Hamzei
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