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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, January 3, 2020, 0935ET
EXIT for PMT Issue #316


SPX is trading at 3235
SPY is trading at 322.65

The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 3.47
The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 0.99

Therefore, the midpoint price for our Call Spread is trading approximately at 2.48

Fari Hamzei

Thursday, January 2, 2020, 2103ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Due to exogenous breaking news, we are stepping back for a few days.

Therefore: GOING FLAT SPX after locking in ~34.5 SPX handles or about a tad over 1%.

Fari Hamzei

Friday, December 27, 2019, 1018ET
LAUNCH COMMAND EMAIL for PMT Issue #316


SPX is trading at 3241.6.50
SPY is trading at 323.06 now

The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 4.00
The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 1.55

Therefore, the midpoint price for our Call Spread is trading approximately at 2.45

Fari Hamzei

Thursday, December 26, 2019, 1135ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #316

Thursday, December 26, 2019, 1130ET
Market Bias for Issue #316

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of DEC 24 at 3223
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of NOV 22 at 3110


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3290
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3270
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 3233
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3205


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday JAN 24 323 Calls 3.43
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JAN 24 328 Calls 1.14
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, December 25, 2019, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #316


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3223 up +103 (up +3.3%) for the 12 trading days ending on Tuesday, December 24, 2019, which closed very near its +2 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 28609 (reached on Friday, December 20, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3227 (reached on Monday, December 23, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8711 (reached on Monday, November 23, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3239 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3250
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3161 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3040
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3083 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2830

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +103 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 60.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This market is BID no matter what..... very scary, but we go with the flow. We have to. The old Wall Street adage applies here: "Trend is Your Friend..."



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,485 or 4.1% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1554 or 8% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 3098 or 4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2958 or 8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a nice week but pulled back on Friday.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a great week but also pulled back on Friday. RISK ON remains so-so.

All EIGHT of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday, December 10, 2019 CLOSE at 3132
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 75 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.04 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

Since December 3, SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has risen pretty sharply to 144, now about its +2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved HRH Capt. Tiko, KCPE, still says NO MAS.


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN20, & short APR20 VIX Futures) hit -2.7 today at the Close. We are still in the overbought zone here.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 89.2 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator also shows we were in overbought zone. We need to be vigilant here with our long [high-beta] positions.

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, December 25, 2019, 2258ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We are getting LONG SPX here and will hold thru New Year 2020 Cash Open………..

Merry Xmas to you and yours...

Fari Hamzei




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