Monday, January 6, 2019, 0900ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #317
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3234 up +11 (up +0.34%) for the 12 trading days ending on Tuesday, December 24, 2019, which closed very near its +2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 28871 reached on Thursday, January 2, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Thursday, January 2, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Thursday, January 2, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3277 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3275
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3194 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3058
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3112 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2841
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +35 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 55.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
This market is BID no more..... as in the recent past, exogenous news have a way of taking over. stay tuned, we shall take one day at the time.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,504 or 3.9% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1557 or 6.6% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 3128 or 3.4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2970 or 8.9% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a nice week but pulled back on Friday.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a great week but also pulled back on Friday. RISK ON remains so-so.
All EIGHT of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday, December 10, 2019 CLOSE at 3132
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 57 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.75 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
Since December 13, SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has eased off and closed on Friday at 133, now about its zero sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved & newly promoted Vice Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says NO MAS.
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN20, & short APR20 VIX Futures) hit -2.23 Friday at the Close.
HA_SP2 = 55.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This indicator says we are in neutral zone for now but the tilt is to the downside.