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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, March 13, 2020, 0110ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Now we think the sell-off in the last two days went too far and we observed a few, albeit very small, bullish divergences in the offing.

So, we are just stepping aside by going FLAT SPX for next day or two as we think next week will be very brutal again as COVID-19 testing becomes more widespread.

Cheers......

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, March 11, 2020, 1515ET
Answering a question from a PMT Member that we should share


Dear PMT & PMT Pro Members,

Given that our market-implied volatility (VIX) has surged over 60, and the S&P-500 Futures hourly ATR (average true range) peaking around 47 handles during last three days (while averaging about 35 handles), we are inclined to focus our efforts to give you the best directional bias possible [and some plausible targets] but no specific options trades at this time.

Please note that at times, we are changing our bias every few days. So, swing trading options becomes almost suicidal.

In addition, the premium in the options market are insane right now (quoting another long time PMT member) and index markets are constantly zig-zaging (feels like we are in the midst of tug-of-war by a few very big players).

This, of course, is only temporarily…..

We think our markets will slow down and level out (after assets are repriced) and then go sideways for a while till the next shoe drops – as VIX drops to more normal levels, then we are more adapt, and willing, to resume providing you with specific options trades as well.

Please be careful out there………

Fari Hamzei

Monday, March 9, 2020, 2314ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX for next few days....

Cheers......

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 8, 2020, 1730ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #320


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2972 down 365 (down -11%) for last two weeks days ending on Friday, March 6, 2020, which closed very near its negative 1.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3538 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3424
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3213 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3183
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2888 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2942

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -270 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 28.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This market is now totally news driven..... downside targets are first 2400 on SPX (equates to 21,700 on DJIA, Dec 18 lows) and then 2100 on SPX (= 18,000 on DJIA, Oct 16 lows).



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,500 or 14.7% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1572 or 7.9% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 3249 or 8.5% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3051 or 2.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a horribly bloody two weeks.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a great week but also pulled back on Friday. RISK remains OFF for now.

Only ONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Monday, February 24, 2020 CLOSE at 3225
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 4 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 140 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its -2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -11.5 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 123.6, now about its negative 2.5 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved & newly promoted Vice Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says NO, ALL IS NOT WELL..... (VADM Tiko notes that on Feb 20, SKEW was at 137+ or its +1 sigma)


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long MAR20, & short JUN20 VIX Futures) hit -11.28 Friday at the Close. We have never seen anything like this before (note: we were NOT running this chart during 2008-2009 financial debacle).



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 34.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator says we are approaching oversold again (25 and lower) - during the prior week, we observed values (between 4.5 & 4.1) for our SP2 indicator that we had NOT seen before either.

Fari Hamzei




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