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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, April 9, 2020, 1023ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Our SPX target of 2790 was met and we are going FLAT SPX today……….

Cheers......

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, April 7, 2020, 1335ET
**UPDATED** LAUNCH COMMAND EMAIL >>> Trade for PMT Issue #321


SPX is trading at 2726.xx now
SPY is trading at 271.8x now

The midpoint price for our Long Call leg is trading approximately at 12.12 now

The midpoint price for our Short Call leg is trading approximately at 7.96 now

Therefore, the midpoint price for our CALL Spread is trading approximately at 4.16 now

@Admiral_Tiko: EXECUTE….. EXECUTE…..

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, April 7, 2020, 1340ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #321

Tuesday, April 7, 2020, 1335ET
Market Bias for Issue #321

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of APR 3 at 2488
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of MAR 26 at 2630


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2850
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2790
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2723
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2650


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday MAY 8 272 Calls 12.12
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAY 8 280 Calls 7.96
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, April 6, 2020, 1930ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #321


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2663 up 425 (up +19%) for last two weeks ending on Monday, April 6, 2020, which closed very near its +1 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2826 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3484
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2527 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3047
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2227 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2411

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +101.8 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57.14 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This market continues to be totally news driven..... 18,000 (Nov 2016 lows) was almost taken out Sunday evening March 22 (Spring Equinox +1 trading day) and since then we have slowly pulled up. Late last week, we managed to put an island formation after we gapped up today, which is very bullish. Our next target is 2825 and then 2950.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,277 or 23.4% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1532 or 25.7% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 2941 or 9.4% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3018 or 11.8% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has tried to stabilize during last two weeks.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also behaved pretty much the same. RISK remains nonexistent for now.

NONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, March 20, 2019 CLOSE at 2304
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 27, 2020 CLOSE at 2541
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 4 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 225 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = +4.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

1 This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 121, now about its negative 0.5 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? our beloved & newly promoted HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says NO, ALL IS NOT WELL..... (ADM Tiko notes that on Feb 20, SKEW was at 137+ or its +1 sigma)


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long APR20, & short JUL20 VIX Futures) hit +8.6 Friday at the Close. We continue to observe values for this spread that we have never seen before (note: we were NOT running this chart during 2008-2009 financial debacle).



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 64.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator says we are slowly approaching overbought condition if we cross 75 and go higher.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, April 6, 2020, 0104ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

I was not around much of Friday. On Thursday, couple of our prop short-term indicators were oversold. They got even deeper oversold by Friday’s Close.

We are going to try the other side. But since we are in a deep bear market, these long trades will be short-term dead cat bounces, and as such, we hold them for a week max.

LONG SPX for a few days only….

Cheers......

Fari Hamzei




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