Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, April 30, 2020, 2025ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Obviously we panicked yesterday and missed a 27-handle reprieve given out to all today in SPX.

Going back to SHORT SPX again…….

As a CIA subcontractor, Joubert, said to Turner, in Three days of Condor (1975): No need to believe in either side, or any side. There is no cause. There's only yourself. The belief is in your own precision.

Joubert & Turner

Cheers………….

Thrusday, April 30, 2020, 1130ET
a quick review for PMT Members

As expected in our last night email to you, we are extremely overbought here (specially as one of our more astute & loyal clients noted to us yesterday: SPX is underneath its 200-day MA = 3006 level as of this writing).

Also worth noting is that SPX hit our MMStop of 2950 for PMT Issue #323 at about 3pm ET yesterday – HoD was 2954 – yes it was a wider than normal stop and that is why we were so shocked that it was breached.

But that is all in the past…….

Now we are at
SPX = ~2914, down 25 handles
HoD = ~2931
LoD = ~2903

Here is our current decision matrix:

a) If you are still long the PMT Issue #323 Put Spread (short bias held overnight), then continue holding it at least for today, but need be on close watch tomorrow as it is first of the month – although we would doubt much that fresh money will be coming in, in size, like most “normal” months. When we issue a new short bias trade, you need to roll it over. If we give you a long bias trade, then that is a no-brainer. You cover PMT Issue #323 Put Spread and get into the long Call Spread trade.

b) If you did get out yesterday, well, you did the right thing given our over all trade protocol. We will most likely get short again and will issue a new trade when that time comes.

You will have another update tomorrow about the same time, ceteris paribus.

Be Safe…….

Wednesday, April 29, 2020, 1933ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

This just went to Timer Digest.

I was truly shocked today’s by SPX performance.
Tomorrow, very early in RTH (after options are open), we will make a decision to stay with or dump our put spreads.
I am very sorry about last two trades off same market bias.

The Remdesivir news from GILD is still very preliminary, according to biotech folks that I have talked to today, and yet, this market reacts like a bunch of teenagers at a Friday night football game.

This shall pass too……
-f

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Dear Jim,

A super majority of our short-term market timing indicators show that we are at moderately to extremely overbought conditions, and, yet our markets continue to rally even as our total confirmed COVID-19 infected cases, hospitalizations & deaths continue to mount.

I can’t sit here and trade futures against my market bias.

We have given back 6% in last two weeks, but we are still ahead by 131% above SPX in last 5 years – see attached chart.

So, for now, we are going to go FLAT SPX for about a week. If markets turns south, we will jump back sooner. If it continues to rise, then we have recalibrate and make another call.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020, 2100ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #324

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)