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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, May 5, 2020, 2015ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #71

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, May 4, 2020, 1155ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #325

Monday, May 4, 2020, 1150ET
Market Bias for Issue #325

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of APR 30 at 2912
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of APR 29 at 2939

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2890
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2822
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2670
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2600

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday MAY 29 281 Puts 9.57
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAY 29 271 Puts 6.59
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, May 3, 2020, 2130ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #325

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2830 down -33 (down -1.2%) for 3 days ending on Friday, May 1, 2020, which closed very near its +1/2 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2989 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3641
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2792 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3008
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2594 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2376

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +69 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX is starting to rotate to the downside. We think this is a tad early. Only time will tell.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,021 or 18.7% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1503 or 16.2% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 2758 or 2.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3004 or 5.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had two horrible days & fell below their 50-day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a similar reaction but closed at its 50-day MA.

FOUR of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, March 20, 2020 CLOSE at 2304
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday, April 28, 2020 CLOSE at 2863
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 12 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 130.4, now about its +2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says NO, ALL IS NOT WELL..... he is not buying Jared's bravado

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long MAY20, & short AUG20 VIX Futures) hit +3.95 at the Close.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 44.9 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)

This indicator says we are at NEUTRAL right now but heading south, most likely.

Fari Hamzei

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