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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, June 3, 2020, 1521ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

What Perfect Storm?

We have a wonderful President, a wonderful Economy, a wonderful Governor, a wonderful Public Health System and wonderful Race Relations throughout this great Nation.

That must be why this market keeps on rising day after day……….

Having said that, there is no place for shorts here and we are stepping aside just after three days (while all of our short term indicators are in uber overbought areas and poised for a drop). We will re-engage once this madness is over.


Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, June 2, 2020, 1559ET
We are stopped out again as SPX 3075 was crossed

This is nuts

Thanks to Jay Powell…..

Fari Hamzei

Monday, June 1, 2020, 1538ET
LAUNCH COMMAND EAM sent from SSBN-731 for PMT Issue #328

Note: @Admiral_Tiko updated the trade & targeting info slightly as the trade/target setup was done far earlier this morning

SPX is trading at 3057 now
SPY is trading at 305.7 now

The midpoint price for our Long Put leg is trading approximately at 7.84 now
The midpoint price for our Short Put leg is trading approximately at 5.49 now

Therefore, the midpoint price for our Put Spread is trading approximately at 2.35 now

@Admiral_Tiko: EXECUTE….. EXECUTE…..

Fari Hamzei

Monday, June 1, 2020, 1515ET
**UPDATED** WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #328

Monday, June 1, 2020, 1510ET
**UPDATED** Market Bias for Issue #328

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of MAY 29 at 3044
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of MAY 22 at 2955

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3075
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 3057
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3001
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2980

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Last Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday JUN 26 305 Puts 7.74 7.84
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JUN 26 298 Puts 5.49 5.49
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, May 31, 2020, 1830ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #328

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2870 up +40 (up +1.4%) for 9 days ending on Friday, May 29, 2020, which closed very near its +2 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3058 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3541
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2920 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2950
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2781 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2359

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +135 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 64.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This week SPX finally tested its 200-day MA (3002) (since the rally that began on Spring Equinox) and managed to close above it. But if history is any guide, we know first or second attempts are normally futile. Keep an eye on 200-day MA Level going forward.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9817 or 8.6% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1482 or 5.9% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 2773 or 9.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3002 or 1.4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had an excellent week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also put in a great week following DJ TRAN pattern.

SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, May 11, 2020 CLOSE at 2930
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, May 20, 2020 CLOSE at 2971
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 18 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 0 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 again closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.85 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator finally reached 45%. Note how behind this indicator vs SPX Price in relative performance (basically says Big Caps dominate the holdings of big players).

SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 132, now about its plus 1.5 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

We wrote this on Twitter Friday night

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, is still not buying Jared's bravado!!

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This shifted timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JUN20, & short SEP20 VIX Futures) hit -5.4 at the Close on Friday. That was a very bullish reading, almost too much.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 77.3 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)

This updated indicator says we are clearly overbought here.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, May 31, 2020, 1602ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

We could be approaching a perfect storm.

Given the inability of Federal Government to take a commanding lead in calming down the multiple situations: huge COVID-19 fatalities, with 40 MM unemployed and now, the riots in at least 19 major cities, I think we better get SHORT SPX near its 200-day MA.


Fari Hamzei

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