Tuesday, July 28, 2020, 2100ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #333
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3218 down -6 (down -0.2%) for the seven trading days ending on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, which closed very near its plus 0.5 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3254 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3378
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3137 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2901
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3020 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2424
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -16.8 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 55.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9696 or 0.5% BELOW the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1469 or 0.2% DELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 3119 or 3.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3043 or 5.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had an excellent week.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also put in a great week following DJ TRAN pattern.
Again, ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, May 11, 2020 CLOSE at 2930
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, July 06, 2020 CLOSE at 3180
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 52 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 again closed near its plus 1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator rallied up to 54% and still pointing up. But that huge divergence with price. As you may recall, for most of the second half of the last decade, this is was a common occurrence and yet we still ended going up.
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at ~139.6, now about its plus 1/2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
We wrote this on Twitter Friday night
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says heck NO!!
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This shifted timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long AUG20, & short NOV20 VIX Futures) hit -6.5 at the Close on Tuesday. This is still another overbought reading.
HA_SP2 = 45.9 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This fantastic timing indicator says we are NEUTRAL (equal chance to go either direction) here.