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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, July 30, 2020, 1345ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #334

Thursday, July 28, 2020, 1345ET
Market Bias for Issue #334

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX since JUL 23 at 3235
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX since JUL 02 at 3130


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3290
SPX Current Price is = 3241
SPX Money Management Stop for last 20% of our position = 3195
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3170
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3130


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Last Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday AUG 14 323 Puts 5.25 5.18
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 14 316 Puts 3.15 3.21
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, July 28, 2020, 2100ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #333


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3218 down -6 (down -0.2%) for the seven trading days ending on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, which closed very near its plus 0.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3254 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3378
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3137 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2901
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3020 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2424

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -16.8 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 55.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9696 or 0.5% BELOW the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1469 or 0.2% DELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 3119 or 3.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3043 or 5.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had an excellent week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also put in a great week following DJ TRAN pattern.

Again, ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, May 11, 2020 CLOSE at 2930
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, July 06, 2020 CLOSE at 3180
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 52 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 again closed near its plus 1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied up to 54% and still pointing up. But that huge divergence with price. As you may recall, for most of the second half of the last decade, this is was a common occurrence and yet we still ended going up.



SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at ~139.6, now about its plus 1/2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

We wrote this on Twitter Friday night

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says heck NO!!


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This shifted timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long AUG20, & short NOV20 VIX Futures) hit -6.5 at the Close on Tuesday. This is still another overbought reading.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 45.9 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)

This fantastic timing indicator says we are NEUTRAL (equal chance to go either direction) here.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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