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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, December 17, 2020, 1135ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #342

Thursday, December 17, 2020, 1130ET
Market Bias for Issue #342

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX since NOV 13 at 3585
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX since NOV 11 at 3572

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3775
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3750
SPX Money Management Stop for last 20% of our position = 3725
SPX Current Price is = 3714
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3655

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Last Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday JAN 8 372 Calls 5.18 5.19
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JAN 8 378 Calls 2.48 2.49
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, December 16, 2020, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #342

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3701 up +29 (up +0.78%) for one week ending on Wednesday, December 16, 2020, which closed very near its +1.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 30326 reached on Monday, December 14, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 12918 reached on Wednesday, December 9, 2020
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3712 reached on Wednesday, December 9, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 12698 reached on Wednesday, December 16, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1960 reached on Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3737 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3735
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3647 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3471
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3558 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 3206

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

DJIA, SPX, NDX, DJT & RUT have been on a tear, since October 30th. So much for a Biden Crash.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10043 or 24.4% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1472 or 33.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 3580 or 4.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3180 or 16.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a horrible drop last month, after registering another ATH last Wednesday.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has been launched to stratosphere back in late October.

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 19, 2020 CLOSE at 3098
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Monday, June 14, 2020 CLOSE at 3647
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.74 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator closed at 91% after a run-up to 93-94 area, which we had never observed before in the last 12 years we have monitored this index.

SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has been hiking up since Nov 1st and closed today at 145, now about its +3 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bullish here.....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN21, & short APR21 VIX Futures) hit -1.82 after the Close. This is too bullish.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 67.8 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)

This indicator says we are at NEUTRAL right now but heading south, most likely.

Fari Hamzei

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