Monday, January, 2021, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #343
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3855 up +87 (up +2.3%) for one week ending on Monday, January 25, 2021, which closed very near its +2.5 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 31272 reached on Thursday, January 21, 2021
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 13208 reached on Thursday, January 14, 2021
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3861 reached on Thursday, January 21, 2021
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 12698 reached on Monday, January 25, 2021
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2195 reached on Monday, January 25, 2021
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3880 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3952
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3782 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3589
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3683 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 3225
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -63 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 52 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
DJIA, SPX, NDX, DJT & RUT have been on a tear, since October 30th. So much for a Biden Crash.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10668 or 20.4% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1587 or 36.3% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 3700 or 4.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3330 or 15.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a great three months with execption of one drop on first trading day of January 2021.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has been launched to stratosphere since last week of September.
ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 19, 2020 CLOSE at 3098
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, December 18, 2020 CLOSE at 3709
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 53 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.76 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator closed at 91.4% after a run-up to 93-94 area, which we had never observed before in the last 12 years we have monitored this index.
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) closed today at 145, now about its +1 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bullish here.....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN21, & short APR21 VIX Futures) hit -1.55 after the Close. This is bullish.
HA_SP2 = 70.7 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This indicator says we are moderately overbought right now.