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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, January 28, 2021, 1310ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #344

Thursday, January 28, 2021, 1305ET
Market Bias for Issue #344

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX since JAN 22 at 3841
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX since JAN 21 at 3853


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3910
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3875
SPX Money Management Stop for last 20% of our position = 3850
SPX Current Price is = 3822
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3710


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Last Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday FEB 26 382 Calls 8.70 8.65
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 26 389 Calls 4.83 4.73
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, January 26, 2021, 1005ET
WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels Chart for Issue #343

Tuesday, January 26, 2021, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #343

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX since JAN 22 at 3841
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX since JAN 21 at 3853


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 3930
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 3910
SPX Money Management Stop for last 20% of our position = 3885
SPX Current Price is = 3855
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 3780


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option Last Mid-Point
BUY SPY Friday FEB 19 384 Calls 7.73 7.72
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 19 391 Calls 3.70 3.79
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long as our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, January, 2021, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #343


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3855 up +87 (up +2.3%) for one week ending on Monday, January 25, 2021, which closed very near its +2.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 31272 reached on Thursday, January 21, 2021
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 13208 reached on Thursday, January 14, 2021
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3861 reached on Thursday, January 21, 2021
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 12698 reached on Monday, January 25, 2021
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2195 reached on Monday, January 25, 2021

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3880 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3952
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3782 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3589
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 3683 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 3225

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -63 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 52 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

DJIA, SPX, NDX, DJT & RUT have been on a tear, since October 30th. So much for a Biden Crash.


DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10668 or 20.4% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1587 or 36.3% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

50-Day MA SPX = 3700 or 4.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3330 or 15.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a great three months with execption of one drop on first trading day of January 2021.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has been launched to stratosphere since last week of September.

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.


HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 19, 2020 CLOSE at 3098
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, December 18, 2020 CLOSE at 3709
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 53 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.76 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)


Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart

This scoring indicator closed at 91.4% after a run-up to 93-94 area, which we had never observed before in the last 12 years we have monitored this index.


SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart

This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) closed today at 145, now about its +1 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bullish here.....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)


3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN21, & short APR21 VIX Futures) hit -1.55 after the Close. This is bullish.


HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 70.7 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)

This indicator says we are moderately overbought right now.

Fari Hamzei



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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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