Sunday, October 3, 2021, 1845ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #353
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3701 up +29 (up +0.78%) for one week ending on Wednesday, December 16, 2020, which closed very near its +1.5 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 35,631 reached on Monday, August 16, 2021
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 16,170 reached on Monday, May 10, 2021
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 4,546 reached on Thursday, September 2, 2021
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 15,701 reached on Tuesday, September 7, 2021
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2,360 reached on Monday, March 15, 2021
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 4,560 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 4,584
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 4,433 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 4,362
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 4,305 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 4,140
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +8 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 45.6 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 14,292 or 0.3% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 2,217 or 1.1% BELOW RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 4.443 or 1.9% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 4,137 or 5.3% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) dropped then traded in a collapsed range during the last month.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has had an expanded range but gone nowhere fast during the last month.
THREE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 19, 2020 CLOSE at 3098
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, September 30, 2021 CLOSE at 4307
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 11 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 8 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its negative 1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator closed at 68% following a slow drip drip pull back from 95%-97% area, which we had never observed before, in the last 12 years that we have monitored this index.
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has been hiking up since Nov 1st and closed today at 135, now about its -2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bullish here.....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long OCT21, & short JAN22 VIX Futures) dropped to -2.8 at the Close. This is mildly bullish.
HA_SP2 = 42.3 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This indicator, after making a "W" bullish divergence with SOX, says we are ready for a mild bounce.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
For a week, YTMs rallied on prospect of US Default but by Friday, they eased off. #MoscowMitch must be insane, as he has no clue what a US Default would do to global finance. Maury is very nervous too !!