Monday, January 17 2022, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #355
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 4663 down 15 (down -0.32%) for one week ending on Wednesday, January 14, 2022, which closed just above its -1 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 35,953 reached on Wednesday, January 5, 2022
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 18,247 reached on Tuesday, November 2, 2021
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 4,819 reached on Wednesday, January 5 2022
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 16,764 reached on Monay, November 22, 2021
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2,459 reached on Monday, November 8, 2021
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 4,841 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 4,820
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 4,714 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 4,581
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 4,586 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 4,343
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = 0.2 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 47.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 15,315 or 3.8% BELOW DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 2,254 or 4.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 4,681 or 0.4% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 4,420 or 5.5% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has been soft and moving in a channel since December.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has been very week and been leading NDX down.
FIVE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in our broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 19, 2020 CLOSE at 3098
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, January 6, 2022 CLOSE at 4,696
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 44 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its positive 0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.1 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator closed at 68% following a slow drip drip pull back from 75% - 77% area. No signal here. But we are now looking for higher lows.
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has been hiking up since Nov 1st and closed today at 134, now about its -1 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bullish here.....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JAN22 and short APR22 VIX Futures) dropped to -4.5 at the Close. This is mildly bullish.
HA_SP2 = 34.5 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This indicator, after making a "W" bullish divergence with SPX, says we are ready for a mild bounce.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
For a week, YTMs rallied on prospect of US Recovery with 10 yr leading here on relative basis. Maury is smiling but rest of his cohorts are nervous about their future cash flow from their bond holdings !!