Sunday, April 17 2022, 2215ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #359
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 4393 down 95 (down -2.1%) for the week ending on Thursday, April 14, 2022, which closed near its -2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 36,953 reached on Wednesday, January 5, 2022
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 18,247 reached on Tuesday, November 2, 2021
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 4,819 reached on Wednesday, January 4 2022
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 16,764 reached on Monday, November 22, 2021
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2,459 reached on Monday, November 8, 2021
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 4,633 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 4,801
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 4,503 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 4,508
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 4,374 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 4,214
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -41 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the �launch-pad� mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 43.2 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 15,354 or 3.3% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 2,180 or 8.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 4,418 or 0.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 4,495 or 2.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has been very soft. 14,400 is a key area that needs to be tested before we go up
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has been very weak and been leading NDX lower. RISK is OFF here.
ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in our broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, February 18, 2020 CLOSE at 4349
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Wednesday, April 6, 2022 CLOSE at 4,481
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 32 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 14 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its negative 0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA Chart
This scoring indicator closed at 49% following a slow drip drip pull back from 60% area. No signal here. But we are now looking for a retest of its lows near 35%.
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) has been dropping since April 4th (from its +2 sigma) and closed today at 134, now about its -2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says he is cautiously bearish here.....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long MAY22 and short AUG22 VIX Futures) dropped to -2.31 at the Close. This is softly bullish.
HA_SP2 = 31.9 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This indicator, is setting up for a retest of 25 and only then we may get ready for a mild [dead-cat ?] bounce.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
March 2022 will be remembered, in annals of history, marking the fastest move higher in YTMs in any month in recent memory. Our dear friend, Maury, in this Passover week, is smiling wide again but he knows better. If he has to cash out part of his vast bond holdings now, there is big price to pay !!