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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, April 25, 2016, 1045ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #140

Monday Morning, April 25, 2016, 0745ET
Market Bias, Issue #140

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Monday April 18 Close at 2094.34
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX since Friday April 8 Close at 2047.60

This WEEK’s Trade = LONG via SPX or SPY CallSpreads

SPX Profit Target = 2130
SPX Money Management Stop = 2080

BOTTOM LINE: We have AAPL reporting today (which should miss), our beloved AuntieJanet (read: FOMC meets) on Tuesday and Wednesday, FB reports on Wednesday and AMZN reports on Thursday. Again, Order Flow is KING...... We expect a peak in the S&P-500 Cash Index during Mid-May period.

Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday Morning, April 25, 2016 0730ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #140

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2091.58 up +10.85 (up 0.5%) for the week ending on Friday, April 22nd, 2016, which closed about near its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21st, 2015)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2110 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2134
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2069 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 1989
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2029 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1844

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +67.5 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 62.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

On Thursday, both GOOGL & MSFT missed JPM rallied to +3 sigma. High tide rises all boats including, floating trash (C & BAC). As we move forward into the Q1 Earning Reports, our fav, GOOGL, reports this week and AAPL, next week.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7793 or 3.8% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1129 or 1.5% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) continued to push higher. Next move should get its 50MA over its 200MA.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) also pushed up and nearing a critical breakout level (1160). RISK is ON.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2013 or +3.9% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2015 or +3.8% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our Eight DeTrenders are positive now. We still see [soft] bearish divergences between DTs and the prices. Again, nothing big and too early to be alarmed about them for now.

HA_SP1_momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/14/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 19 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = between in the +1 to +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +1.3(reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

NOTE: As WEEKLY SPX CI Diff continues to stay green, we should further price improvements.

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 14.1 is now at its zero sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO. VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The Fear Index stil remains "dazed and confused" here, in LedZepp parlance.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both 5-day TRIN (for NYSE) and 5-day TRINQ (for NASDAQ) remain NEUTRAL here. No signal.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This past week, this scoring indicator jumped to 74% in a SIDEWAY price action & neared the top of our target zone discussed here last week (72% to 75%). This is BULLISH.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = 123 and near its 0 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? All Problems Solved, all of a sudden? ubetcha if you listen to a certain billionaire who thinks he can pay off the NatDebt in 8 yrs (ROFLMTO) should win the White House.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG MAY16 & SHORT AUG16) is trading at about -2.85 this morning. No signal here.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 60 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

At ~60, this prop indicator is above NEUTRAL zone.

SPX 2012 Analog for SPX 2016

Based on this Analog, it still looks like that we may see a reversal in early-May. Is that certain? Of course NOT.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, US Treasury Yields dropped to, or below, their April Pivot marks. Bond Market has gone Blonde (clueless in our parlance), LOL.

Fari Hamzei

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