Sunday, October 23, 2016, 1845ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #164
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2141.16 up +8.18 (up +0.38%) for the week ending on Friday, October 21st, 2016, which closed just above its -1 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2174 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2223
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2149 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2144
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2124 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2065
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -9 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
This week, we have a number of big NYSE & NASDAQ names (AAPL, CAT, BA, TSLA, AMZN, BIDU & GOOGL) reporting their Q3 Earnings and any of them could be a market mover.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7674 or 4.6% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1141 or 6.7% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) also had a lackluster week.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) had an uneventful week as well. But, we can always blame the Romans for that. LOL.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2160 or 0.9 above SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2072 or 3.3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
Currently, only 2 of our 8 De Trenders are negative. The De Trenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 10/07/16 CLOSE at 2153
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 10 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = at its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.56 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX is currently testing its -1 sigma level at 13.34 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
Our newest shock wave has lost its momentum in quick succession.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again in NEUTRAL zone.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator sank to 64% on Friday. Still, my XO (stands for eXecutive Officer, aka, second in command),@Capt_Tiko, is still looking for 55% to 60% zone.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) settled at 123 which is about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)
All is getting Quieter on the Mid-Western Front. Has Billary45 already been coronated?
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG NOV16 & SHORT FEB17) dropped further to -2.83, volatility market signaling potential for further upside in price action.
HA_SP2 = 49.5 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This indicator is in its neutral zone.
Will the other shoe drop? Fed is acting as insurer of last resort and selling AuntieJanet Puts as a discount (yes, Maury likes that. Actually to be correct, we must state Maury likes anything on a discount). LOL.
SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The YTMs on Treasury Complex finally pulled back last week but only at the margin.