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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, January 6, 2017, 1547ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

We are going FLAT SPX after the Close today……and most likely, we will stay FLAT for couple days into next week.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, Januray 3, 2017, 1115ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #174

Tuesday, January 3, 2017, 0115ET
Market Bias for Issue #174

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Dec 30 Close at 2238.83
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Mon Dec 12 Close at 2256.96

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2280
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2255-2260
Current SPX (BreakEven Stop) = 2238
SPX Money Management Stop = 2230

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
SELL SPY JAN 18, 2017 227 Calls
BUY SPY JAN 18, 2017 222 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call Spread
to create a defined risk trade.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, January 3, 2017, 0104ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

It is 1am in the Eastern Front & looks like our comments last Saturday were a tad off.

The [dead-cat] bounce is here.

So, we are going LONG SPX at 2238.83

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, January 3, 2017, 0045ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #174

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2238.83 down -24.96 (down -1.1%) for the week ending Friday, December 30th, 2016, which closed near its -0.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2277.53 (reached on Tuesday, December 13, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2271.72 (reached on Tuesday, December 13, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2293 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2273
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2249 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2174
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2206 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2082

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -31 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last week SPX dropped a tad over 1%, mainly in 2 sessions.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8069 or 12.1% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1208 or 12.4% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) started to drop at a steep rate last week. Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) continued its gradual drop. RISK is slowing getting repriced.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2194 or 2% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2136 or 4.8% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

NONE of our eight DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday 12/29/16 CLOSE at 2249
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 22 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -5.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its +2 sigma level at 14 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX Complex rose modestly this past week and touched its +3 sigma on Friday.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL right now.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator retreated to 67% which shows very little change from last week.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose gradually last week and finally closed just above its +1 sigma at 127. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All remain quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts as SKEW sigma channels are very tightly spaced.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JAN17 & SHORT APR17) rose for moset of last week and then closed at -3.29 on Friday.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 26.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 dropped every day last week.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex dropped a tad this past week.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, December 31, 2016, 1440ET
Market Timing Commentary sent to Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

We expect at least one more down day as our prop momentum indicators are barely hanging over the oversold zone. We surmise that sometime this week, our very short-term momentum indicators, will get exhausted and start to build a base for a dead-cat bounce.

We would love to see SPX 2200 (-2 sigma by the time we get down there), but SPX 2220-2215 could be a tough hurdle to get thru. We shall see. Going forward, in our humble opinion, the analog for SPX 2017 should be SPX 1981 (or possibly 1982).

Happy New Year to All…. specially to our Armed Forces whom are stationed overseas and in harm’s way.

Fari Hamzei

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