Sunday, January 8, 2017, 2255ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #175
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2276.98 up +38.15 (up +1.7%) for the week ending Friday, January 6th, 2017, which closed near its +2 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2282.10 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2276.98 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2279 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2287
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2261 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2182
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2242 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2077
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +68 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Last week SPX had a very nice run helping DJIA get within 40 cents of 20,000.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8090 or 12.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1213 or 12.6% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) ran a very special sausage ops algo, that tells us ROMANs are getting into the Transport Biz. LOL
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) was very confused as evidenced by the Railroad Tracks. RISK is still ON, ioho.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2204 or 3.3% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2140 or 6.4% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
NONE of our eight DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 1/6/17 CLOSE at 2277
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 28 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 11.3 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
VIX Complex dropped modestly this past week.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now with a possible SELL signal coming up for NASDAQ.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator retreated to 70% - no signal here as we see no divergence, as of now.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose & dropped gradually last week and finally ended up just about its zero sigma at 123. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All remain quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts as SKEW sigma channels are very tightly spaced.
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JAN17 & SHORT APR17) dropped gradually each day till it closed at -4.13 on Friday.
HA_SP2 = 70 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
SP2 rallied hard from 26 (that is one reason we went long last Monday night).
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The YTMs on Treasury Complex continued to drop this past week till Friday which they reversed a tad on DEEZ NFP Release.