Saturday, February 4, 2017, 1900ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #179
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2297.42 up +2.73 (up +0.12%) for the week ending Friday, February 3rd, 2017, closed near its +2 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2300.99 (reached on Thursday, January 26, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2298.97 (reached on Wednesday, January 25, 2017)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2299 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2334
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2278 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2208
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2257 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2082
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +51 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Once again, SPX failed to provide any price expansion in either direction. We saw a good amount of intraday vol, specially before FOMC and then during January NFP.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8216 or 12.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1237 or 11.3% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) finally managed to bounce off its 50-bar MA (3rd time during this rally since the general election).
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a huge day on Friday after January NFP blasted thru the consensus opinion, both for headline and privates. RISK remains HOT RED.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2255 or 1.9% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2161 or 6.3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
All of our eight De Trenders remain positive again. The De Trenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 2/3/17 CLOSE at 2297
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just about its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 10.97 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
The VOL Complex moved modestly LOWER this past week.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now. No Signal here.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This past Friday, looks like this scoring indicator wants to breakout. Target: 75%-77%
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) moved sideways and ended at zero sigma at 133. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
All is [relatively] quiet again on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts....
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG FEB & SHORT MAY) rose slightly from last week and closed at -3.52 on Friday. NO SIGNAL HERE, YET.
HA_SP2 = 72 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
SP2 sank to 44 and then sank to 72, showing a sign of possible double top in the making or market is bid, period, thanks to Grumpie LLC.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The YTMs rose a tad from their monthly pivots. Sausage Ops continued in the Bond Market. ROMANs were found at the Gates of CBOT (some with papers LOL).
Have a great Super Bowl weekend....Go BOSTON Go.