Sunday, April 8, 2018, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #235
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2604.47 down -36.40 (down -1.38%) for the week ending on Friday, April 6, 2018, which closed below its -1 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2814 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2856
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2679 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2703
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2545 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2550
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -12 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
What a week it was, courtesy of Grumpino's repeated foot in the mouth fiascos. Do you think, if asked, GOP will refund some or all of my campaign contributions? Bigly LOL......
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10016 or 1.4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1487 or 2.8% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another struggling week, and so far has been stuck between 50 bar and 200 bar for seven weeks now. It won't stay here forever. A breakout or breakdown here shall be a huge tell (Grumpino calls that "a Bigly Tell," if only he could read a chart LOL).
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) could not hold over its 50-day MA for more than 2 weeks and it is trading below. RISKY wants to get back ON but seems a tad "dazed and confused" in the holy words of LedZepp.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2709 or 3.9% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2593 or 0.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
FOUR of our EIGHT DeTrenders remain in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 04/06/118 CLOSE at 2604
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Tuesday 3/20/18 CLOSE at 2716
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 7 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 31 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed above its -0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.55 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX currently stands at 21.49, just above its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
This week, VIX Futures continued their mild Contango which says we are near a trade able low or just above it. WE MUST STAY VIGILANT......
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
NYSE 5-day TRIN is staying in the BUY Zone while NASDAQ's is moving back into NEUTRAL zone.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator oscillated between 51 and 61, ending up at 52.6%. What a week this was. We certainly hope Don Grumpino learned something here and will keep his big mouth shut. But as our beloved @Capt_Tiko reminds us, as in anything with Grumpino, we can't be sure.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~122.4, or about its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says YES, but......
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, now long April, short July VIX Futures near +1.26. Is the bottom in? @Capt_Tiko again says YES.
HA_SP2 = 40.2 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This coveted prop indicator rallied up to 58 by Thursday but courtesy of Don Grumpino hot air, lost 1/3 of its value and closed at 40.2... so much for a Wharton education.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The Flight-to-Safety Trade was still in vogue this past week.... and we understand Maury & Co. gave every employee a week off (of course, without pay) as rates continued to drop, at the margin .