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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, November 28, 2018, 1604ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a great Pricetonian, delivers out of the ballpark and we are going FLAT SPX for now.


Fari Hamzei

Monday, November 26, 2018, 1015ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #268

Monday, November 26, 2018, 1012ET
Market Bias for Issue #268

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of NOV 23 at 2632
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of NOV 20 at 2705

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2710
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2695
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2668
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2650

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday DEC 14 267 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday DEC 14 271 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, November 25, 2018, 1905ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

As discussed here last Tuesday, our plan was to review our market bias Sunday night.

Well, there it is: WE ARE GETTING LONG SPX from 2632, but for a very short period of time, as we still see many dark clouds overhead (in techs, national debt, inflation, Fed, durable goods/CapEx, Washington politics, etc etc).


Fari Hamzei

Sunday, November 25, 2018, 1900ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #268

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2632 down -104 (down -3.8%) for the week ending on Friday, November 23, 2018, which closed just about its -1.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2815 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2962
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2726 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2821
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2638 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2680

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -26 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 39.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Dow dropped about 1000 pts from last Friday high to Tuesday low. Even our beloved Capt Tiko was stunned and urged us to get FLAT.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,730 or 3.4% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1614 or 7.8% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) is now approaching its "death cross" (50-day MA crosses below its 200-day MA).

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF), as expected here, put in a "death cross". RISK is now in a big struggle to make a comeback.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2793 or 5.8% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2760 or 4.6% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

For the FOURTH week in the row, NONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, November 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2730
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 27 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 40 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.95 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 21.5, right above its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX & VXN both have been very quiet this past week.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is approaching its BUY zone while NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ is still in the NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 37% area. This is a slightly OVERSOLD reading here.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 117.2, still about its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko still says MAYBE....He is killing us, ever slowly

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long DEEZ18, & short MAR19 VIX Futures) closed at +0.18 which is very OVERSOLD. Expect a bounce in SPX shortly.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 23.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator sank to 22.5, rallied and closed at 23.4. This is another OVERSOLD reading.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Last week, flight-to-safety trades continued across the Yeild Curve and all YTMs sank hard (with exception of FF). Mr & Mrs Maury are uber upset now.......

Fari Hamzei

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