Monday, November 11, 2019, 1945ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #313
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 3087 up +26 (up +0.87%) for the six trading days ending on Monday, November 11, 2019, which closed at its +1.5 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 27775 (reached on Thursday, November 7, 2019)
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3098 (reached on Thursday, November 7, 2019)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8272 (reached on Thursday, November 7, 2019)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3109 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3104
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 3037 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2982
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2964 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2860
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -34 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Bearish Divergences are showing on almost every chart. We will stay short SPX. We should be nearing some form of fireworks any day now.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,419 or 5.9% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1541 or 3.4% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 2993 or 3.1% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2900 or 6.4% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had a great run-up in the last 2 weeks.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also has had a somewhat of a solid run-up in the last 2 weeks displaying a bearish divergence. RISK ON remains so-so.
All EIGHT of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, March 8, 2019 CLOSE at 2743
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, October 11, 2019 CLOSE at 2970
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 68 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 5 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.53 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long NOV19, & short FEB20 VIX Futures) hit -3.7 today at the Close. We are clearly at overbought zone here.
HA_SP2 = 73.8 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This indicator has shows signs that the overall market is OVERBOUHT & tired [and could be susceptible to a pullback].