Sunday, May 3, 2020, 2130ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #325
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2830 down -33 (down -1.2%) for 3 days ending on Friday, May 1, 2020, which closed very near its +1/2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2989 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3641
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2792 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 3008
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2594 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2376
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +69 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
SPX is starting to rotate to the downside. We think this is a tad early. Only time will tell.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,021 or 18.7% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1503 or 16.2% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 2758 or 2.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3004 or 5.8% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has had two horrible days & fell below their 50-day MA.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a similar reaction but closed at its 50-day MA.
FOUR of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, March 20, 2020 CLOSE at 2304
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday, April 28, 2020 CLOSE at 2863
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 12 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 130.4, now about its +2 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says NO, ALL IS NOT WELL..... he is not buying Jared's bravado
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long MAY20, & short AUG20 VIX Futures) hit +3.95 at the Close.
HA_SP2 = 44.9 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This indicator says we are at NEUTRAL right now but heading south, most likely.