Monday, May 25, 2020, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #327
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) Close: 2870 up +40 (up +1.4%) for 9 days ending on Friday, May 22, 2020, which closed very near its +1 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 29568 reached on Wednesday, February 12, 2020
DJT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 reached on Friday, September 14, 2018
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 3258 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 8873 reached on Wednesday, February 19, 2020
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 reached on Friday, August 31, 2018
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2985 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3566
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2894 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2861
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2803 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2355
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +95 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.3 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
SPX is in its own orbit, and, now it is finally trying to break out over its 200-day MA (~3000).
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9840 or 13.9% ABOVE the DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1484 or 8.7% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
50-Day MA SPX = 2725 or 8.2% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 3001 or 1.5% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a pretty decent run to the upside in the last 9 sessions.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) pretty much followed TRAN pattern here.
FIVE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in the POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, May 11, 2020 CLOSE at 2930
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, May 20, 2020 CLOSE at 2971
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 21 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 again closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.86 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) Chart
This week SPX SKEW (Downside Tail Risk) eased off on Thursday (SKEW is NOT computed every day any more) and closed at 125.8, now about its negative 0.5 sigma (normal = 115, range 100-150).
All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? HRH Admiral Tiko, KCPE, says: ALL IS NOT WELL & he is not buying Jared's bravado!!
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This shifted timing indicator for identifying tradable bottoms, (now long JUN20, & short SEP20 VIX Futures) hit -4.95 at the Close today. Once it hits zero, ceteris paribus, we are near the bottom.
HA_SP2 = 62.3 (Buy signal <= 30, Sell Signal >= 70)
This updated indicator says we are above neutral, and, we have a setup for testing the overbought region.